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According to a study by the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), the drought in Argentina has already caused a loss of 2,930 million dollars to the thick harvest of the field and, in total, the impact on the Argentine economy will be 4,800 million dollars. or 1% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The calculation was made taking into account the decrease in the average of the expected yields and the planting areas that were lost, but without considering the effect on the quality of the grains.

“Summer water stress caused the soybean and corn harvest forecast to fall by 9 and 8 million tons, respectively. Even with the recovery of prices, the loss of net income for the producing sector already amounts to 2.93 billion dollars, which which will result in less freight, less financial and brokerage services, less consumption,” said the BCR.

In this context, for the new campaign the entity projected with respect to the external front that exports of the main products of the soybean and corn complexes will fall by 13 million tons. If the net exports of the sector are valued at current prices, it is estimated that 2,665 million dollars will not enter the country, a drop of 10% compared to the total estimated at the end of last year.

In addition, the State will stop collecting taxes for 1,440 million dollars, of which 1,040 million dollars correspond to lower tax income from export duties, and the rest to other taxes.

It is very bad news when the net reserves are 1,396 million dollars and on January 28, 700 million dollars of interest to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are due and, in total in the first quarter, maturities of 5,000 million dollars are accumulated.

The drought becomes an obstacle to the path of accumulation of reserves proposed to the Fund by the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán.

Although the price of soybeans at harvest increased 14% in the Chicago Market between September of last year and January 2022, and corn rose 23% for the early variety and 12% for the late variety, “the yield of soybeans have already lost an average of 19% compared to the potential with which accounts were made at the time of planning the 2021/22 plantings,” said the BCR.

“In the case of corn, the loss of yield potential for those that will be harvested next April reaches 29%, while for those that will be harvested as of July this year, 18% of their quintals, in the core zone”.

“With these numbers, the total gross income expected per planted hectare has lost 7% in the case of soybeans and 10% in the case of corn, weighted by the number of planted hectares of each variety,” they concluded.

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