Yesterday, January 17, the Open Parliament began on the energy reform.
It is a discussion in which the participants will debate throughout a month.
In different forums, the current reform, approved in 2013, during the six-year term of Enrique Peña Nieto, and the pros and cons of the reform proposed by the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador are analyzed.
Subsequently, an opinion will be prepared that the legislators will seek to approve in the current period of sessions.
To put it simplistically, the convenience of maintaining the “neoliberal” reform, as it is described in this government, is being discussed.
Or replace it with the counter-reform proposed by the current government.
Most analysts agree in calling it a counter-reform because, from their point of view, it seeks to reverse the energy policy of the recent past.
The Chief Executive sent to Congress an initiative to modify Constitutional Articles 25, 27 and 28.
Among other things, such modifications would return the character of monopoly in almost the entire energy value chain to the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE).
CFE would be required to generate at least 54% of the country’s electricity. Since the supporters’ club reform was approved, the representatives of that government were convinced that it was a constitutional reform and consequently it would be difficult for it to be reversed in the future.
It seemed difficult for the requirements to be met so that in the future the fate of the supporters’ energy reform would change.
Why? Because in order to change the constitutional reform in energy matters, a qualified majority is required among the legislators, of two thirds plus one, and an absolute majority (half plus one) of the congresses of the States of the Republic.
Today the numbers make a difference with respect to what the Morena party needs to be approved in Congress.
In the Chamber of Deputies, the approval of the initiative requires 331 votes. The government party and its allies put together 278. Morena needs 53 to reach a qualified majority.
In the Chamber of Senators, 86 votes are needed to approve the reform. Morena and her allies have 76.
In both chambers, the party in power has to convince legislators from other political parties to get the necessary vote.
Everything indicates that such votes could be obtained from the PRI. In fact, the President of the Republic recognized this during a morning session. We’ll see that.
For now, where the government has made a lot of progress is in the narrative around its electricity reform.
The President of the Republic has a space like no one else to promote it and to discredit the current reform.
At the beginning of the open parliament, the voices of the governors of the Morena party were heard with practically the same speech.
The voices that defend the current reform insist that the solutions of 50 or 60 years ago cannot solve today’s problems.
They warn that greater competition in the electricity market allows the State not to invest more resources and can allocate them to other more pressing social needs.
The positions are radically polarized.
Although there are those who bet that some modifications could be made on the margin, without touching the core of the López Obrador electricity reform. And with that, get your approval.
On the other hand, there are those who say that the change in the proposed reform is so radical that if it is approved, even with changes, it will cause severe consequences as it is a blow to investor confidence that would trigger international litigation.
There is no doubt that the intention to carry out the Electricity Reform is more alive than ever. Still until a few days ago, in the highest business circles they asked: where is the electrical reform?
VISIT.- The visit of the US Secretary of Energy, Jennifer Granholm, to Mexico has been announced. She will be received by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and will talk with Rocío Nahle and the Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Marcelo Ebrard. We will see what happens and how the pieces are rearranged or not on the energy chessboard between Mexico and the US.
Rich and Powerful
He has worked uninterruptedly in newspapers, magazines, radio, television and the Internet, in the last 31 years he has specialized in business, finance and economics. He is one of the three hosts of the program Alebrijes, Águila o Sol, a program specialized in economic issues that is broadcast on Foro TV.