The world of other economic data generated, from the first moments of this administration, a discredit of the morning source as a benchmark of the state of the country in terms of economy and finances. The market knows that economic issues are propaganda and not information.
But there are still many political clients of the 4T who believe without hesitation in what they hear from Andrés Manuel López Obrador, although there are more and more who do not understand why if the President is so sure of how well things are going, They are getting worse every day.
We are right now in another one of those moments in which the reality of the data is opposed to the parallel world of “the other data”. We are faced with the discursive insistence that the Mexican economy is growing and has not stopped, but faced with the fact of the real Mexico that last December there are already, again, negative numbers.
The President says that the economy continues to grow despite the rebound in cases of the Omicron variant and the Inegi reports that everything indicates that the economic activity of the last month of 2021 would have had a negative record.
The instrument by which we can know this is the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), which anticipates the fate of another highly useful statistical sample, which is the Global Indicator of Economic Activity, the IGAE, which is a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) monthly.
This IOAE anticipates that last December the IGAE would have had a contraction of -0.2% compared to the same month of 2020, the year of the pandemic.
It also anticipates the inevitable in the face of a rebound in infections, that the tertiary sector would have presented a drop of 1.3% during the month of greatest commercial activity of the year.
There is a long list of indicators that show this economic slowdown since last September, private consumption, unemployment, industrial activity, gross fixed investment, in short, a long list of data that makes clear to us the very bad news that the Mexican economy is is stopping and may have stopped growing.
López Obrador himself has already warned that he is going to raise his Treasury Secretary, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, to the rostrum in the morning to validate his statements about the continued and sustained growth of the economy.
The Ministry of Finance could navigate very well with its estimates presented in the Economic Policy Criteria that it presented together with the Economic Package for this 2022 that it put on the legislative table since last September 8, when the panorama was different.
Now, Secretary Ramírez de la O has to go in the morning to juggle defending growth of 4.1% for this year as estimated in September, which would be the only way to endorse the presidential words, or accept that the President has other data and that today a 3% growth is already seen as a practically unattainable goal.
It must be difficult for a financial expert to navigate between these two worlds: the real world and the other data world.
Televisa News Anchor
The great Depression
Degree in Communication Sciences from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, with a specialty in finance from the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico and a master’s degree in Journalism from the Anahuac University.
His professional career has been dedicated to different media. He is currently a columnist for the newspaper El Economista and news anchor on Televisa. He is the owner of the 2 pm news space on Foro TV.
He is a specialist in economic-financial issues with more than 25 years of experience as a commentator and host on radio and television. He has been part of companies such as Radio Programas de México, where he participated in VIP business radio. He was also part of the management and talent team of Radio Formula.