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A historic disbandment of flows from the sovereign debt of Mexico, which has marked two consecutive years of record figures, could be extended in the coming months by the hand of an expected increase in interest rates in U.S, which would also keep the domestic currency.

Last year, the nation saw 257,601 million pesos (12,630 million dollars) of its debt securities leave, amid greater risk aversion and the persistent advance of the pandemic, above the 2020 record of 257,239 million pesos, according to data from the central bank.

“It is very likely that this bleeding will continue in 2022,” he predicted James Salazar, deputy director of firm analysis CI Banco anticipating effects due to a tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) of the United States.

In the first week of the year, the local government debt saw another 8,944 million pesos (439 million dollars) flee, and that rate is expected to continue as long as the tail of the pandemic persists, although the president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has ruled out effects on the economy despite the increase in infections.

Local debt, which since the years following the 2008 crisis has benefited from an expansionary monetary policy in its northern neighbor that pushed rates to historically low levels, is now suffering from the prospect that the US central bank will begin to upload them from March.

The market anticipates at least three increases in the rate in the United States during 2022, from its current level of between 0% and 0.25%, which would go against emerging assets, such as Mexico’s debt, which, although they offer better returns are viewed as higher risk.

Analysts expect that Bank of Mexico respond by raising yours above 6.5% at the end of the year from the current 5.5%, according to a survey of Citibanamex, at a time when inflation is at its highest levels since 2001.

Remittances and tourism

In the midst of the gale, the Mexican peso it has also resented interest rate spread concerns and analysts believe it could continue to come under pressure. According to the Citibanamex survey, it would close 2022 at 21.60 per dollar, with a depreciation of 5.9% compared to its current level of 20,396 units.

Even so, last year the currency depreciated just 3.1%, much less than the rest of its peers in the region, encouraged by the reactivation of economic activity in U.S, Mexico’s main business partner, which helped mitigate the effect of capital outflows.

Local exports, one of the country’s main sources of foreign exchange, recovered almost 20% between January and November 2021 from a 10% slump for the entire previous year, when lockdowns to deal with the pandemic hit the economy. global, according to official data.

In addition, remittances, mainly from the United States and which López Obrador sees as a blessing, go straight to scoring a historic year in 2021 after adding a record 46.834 million dollars between January and November.

Another element that has played in favor of the peso has been the continuous arrival of foreign tourists to the country, since the expenditure of international visitors totaled 17,263 million dollars in the first 11 months of last year, 78% more than in the same period of last year. 2020.

But at the domestic level, there are also concerns about a possible reduction of the sovereign note and that controversial projects advance in Congress, such as a electrical industry reform which could inhibit investment in the sector.

“They are local factors that do not help much and that contribute to us seeing these capital outflows,” he said. Alexander Saldana, financial group analyst go for more. “These months may still be difficult.”

But not all flows left the country. The stock gained more than 20% in 2021, its best performance in 12 years, and foreign investors’ position in the stock market rose nearly 13% to $157.692 million from a 6.3% decline in 2020. Analysts and traders They said that there have been rearrangements in the portfolios in favor of the Mexican market.

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