One year into the presidency of Joe Biden in a country that reflects a world with conflicting visions.
What for some has been a return to normality, for others has become the normalization of electoral fraud, and the latter sets off the alarms of democracy, while it seems that the ship is heading to the same sea of the sexennial Mexican tragicomedy .
Institutional strength requires political maturity. No more.
Biden has done well in getting the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package through and having nearly 58% of his population vaccinated. However, issues such as immigration, the permanence of some Trump programs, the exit from Afghanistan and the record of the highest inflation in the last 39 years, do not play in his favor.
In fact, the latest Gallup poll shows Biden with just 40% approval, the lowest point since his administration began. The latter being only comparable, with the 38.4% that Donald Trump had and the 49.3% of Bill Clinton during the same period.
So they will go down in history, as the most unpopular presidents in their first term, after World War II. Because everyone else, on average, has had 57% or even higher.
The decline in his approval can be traced to July 2021 when the delta variant of COVID-19 caused a spike in the number of infections, and continued in late August with the disaster that turned out to be the exit from Afghanistan, until reaching the point where
it is largely due to the 7% inflation and the increase in Omicron-related cases.
The panorama does not look easy at all, and if we add to this that after this year’s midterm elections it could end with a Congress against it, we can deduce that returning to a place close to the high approval rating with which it began, has become a bigger challenge.
In addition to the above, we must also take into account that the international scene is in a quite complicated point. The tension between Russia and the United States over the crisis in Ukraine is somehow reminiscent of what happened during the missile crisis in Cuba and if it is not handled well, it could end up becoming an episode similar to the one in Afghanistan.
On the other hand, the military alliance between Russia, China and Iran to confront the West continues to consolidate. They will conduct naval exercises in the Persian Gulf and a flotilla including a Russian missile cruiser is already in the area.
The Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis has significant weight in geopolitical terms. It contains a combined population of 1,500 inhabitants, 29 million km2 and an economy that together represents 22% of world GDP. In addition to the fact that China and Russia have nuclear weapons and are permanent members of the UN Security Council, with the respective right to veto.
Finishing off with a Chinese economy that has an inflation of only 1.5% and that grew by 4% in the third quarter of 2021, while the US grew by 2%.
This is how Biden enters his first year.
Last one out turn off the light
Last one out turn off the light
Mexican analyst and commentator. He studied international relations at the Tecnológico de Monterrey CCM and at the Institute of Political Studies of Paris (Sciences-Po). He has a specialty in Russian foreign policy from the MGIMO in Moscow and a master’s degree in Geopolitics, Territory and Security from King’s College London in England.