There are several issues of concern regarding the performance that this country has had in recent years. There are not a few burdens that clearly stop the expectations of a better condition for the economy, security, governance and many other things.
But on that board of amber lights there are some that can clearly turn a more intense yellow that can quickly change to red alert.
One has to do with the expectations of financial health towards 2023 and especially the 2024 electoral year. And the other alert has to do with the direct and brazen interference with the autonomous electoral authority.
The Mexican economy is not going to grow 4.1% this year, as the Ministry of Finance still maintains. And even if discursive juggling is done to ensure that we are doing well, the fiscal authority should be preparing the necessary adjustments to its spending to adapt it to a growth that could well be less than 2 percent.
But if from the main office of the National Palace there is a refusal to spend less on the items that consume the most resources, welfare plans and pharaonic works, the imbalance in public accounts could increase and increase public debt even more.
And if the 4T will want to do something in the run-up to the presidential succession in 2024, it will be to have happy electoral clients that allow it to fulfill its most precious goal of maintaining power.
The financial spotlight would change from yellow to red if markets disapprove of strategies of higher spending without sufficient revenue growth and higher debt.
And as every effort of this administration is focused on its political-electoral success, the other warning signal lights up in the grounds of the organizing referee of the elections.
The size of the attack against the National Electoral Institute exceeds the attacks on some of its members, they even go beyond the attempts to prosecute that evident rancor towards an authority that has demonstrated its impartiality.
It does not seem that the President can achieve the qualified majority necessary to dismantle the autonomous electoral system that has been achieved in Mexico over the last 30 years, but with the episode of the referendum on the so-called Revocation of the Mandate, it was already clear that the Achilles’ heel of the INE is the budget allocation made by the obedient simple majority of López Obrador in the Chamber of Deputies.
An election organized by an autonomous arbitrator limited by budgetary issues is an easy target for an army of deer from the nation that can mobilize the masses at will towards a small number of polling places that, due to their saturation, discourage many citizens from participating. For example.
A constitutional setback in energy matters would also be one of those turning points of no return for the stability of this country, it would be another red flag. But today it is seen as something more difficult, at least in the terms originally proposed by López Obrador.
There is thus a marquee of warning lights lit in this country, but some of them stand out for what they can imply in damage so profound that it cannot be resolved in several generations.
Televisa News Anchor
The great Depression
Bachelor of Communication Sciences from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, with a specialty in finance from the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico and a master’s degree in Journalism from the Anahuac University.
His professional career has been dedicated to different media. He is currently a columnist for the newspaper El Economista and news anchor on Televisa. He is the owner of the 2 pm news space on Foro TV.
He is a specialist in economic-financial issues with more than 25 years of experience as a commentator and host on radio and television. He has been part of companies such as Radio Programas de México, where he participated in VIP business radio. He was also part of the management and talent team of Radio Formula.