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The uncertainty that reigns in the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) continue to have an impact on the local market. at the start of the week the blue dollar remains at historical highs, the financial dollars advance up to $5 and the risk country marks a new record after the 2020 trade.

Even though that him parallel exchange rate opened the exchange day in low, past noon returned to position at $219. This is the highest nominal price on record, which was reached last Friday, when the currency that is traded in the informal market climbed $5 (2.3%).

Meanwhile, financial dollars tend to rise. The MEP dollar that is accessed through AL30 bonds is sold at $217.26, an advance of almost five pesos (+2.1%), while with GD30 titles it stands at $216.49 (+1%). Although the cash with settlement (CCL) with AL30 fell to $218.04 (-0.2%), with GD30 it advanced to $226.32 (+1.1%) and with Cedear to $227.52 (+1, one%).

“In January ‘the pesos begin to exceed’: it is a fact. If we add to that the impact of drought, that the Central Bank (BCRA) sold dollars again and that the chances of ‘default’ to the IMF are greater, is enough to explain the rebound of the parallel dollar. Two parameters: the CCL dollar at $223 is still far from the 2020 peak of $280 (adjusted for inflation) and today’s ‘convertibility dollar’ (at $267). If the market takes a turn for the worse, we could quickly go for a CCL of $250 (gap 130%)”, indicated Fernando Marull, FMyA economist.

The official wholesale dollar is shown on screens at $104.52, so the gap to blue is still above 109%. The retail dollar It is offered in the main banks of the country at $110.02 and the dollar “savings”, with a surcharge of 65%, it reaches $181.53.

The risk country He doesn’t show any signs of letting up either. At the beginning of the week, the index prepared by the JP Morgan advances 42 units and is positioned at 1959 basis points. This is the highest value since the debt with private creditors was restructured in September 2020.

This occurs as a consequence of the fall of the bonds of the last debt swap. This Monday, abroad the Bonar 2030 sinks 2.4% and the Global 2030 1.5%; meanwhile, at the local level, the Bonar 2029 fell 1.2% and the Bonar 2038 fell 0.7%.

“The low level of Central Bank reserves added to the lack of progress in the negotiations with the IMF are the main causes of uncertainty. Added to this is persistent inflation and the public’s lack of interest in holding pesos. Sovereign debt bonds also reflect this complicated scenario. We are entering a critical stage that will require imminent definitions or at least certain signals from the authorities. that allow at least to reduce the high economic uncertainty that is going through this moment”, considered Emilse Córdoba, director of Bell Inversiones.

According to the fall recorded by all the stock markets in the world, the S&P Merval operates at 81,646 units, 2% down compared to the previous day. As for Argentine stocks listed abroad (ADR), the biggest falls were for YPF papers (-5.3%), Irsa Propiedades Comerciales (-5%) and Cresud (-4.1%).

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