The first Governor of the Bank of Mexico, Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, will participate in her first monetary meeting in the midst of inflation that has reached the highest level in 21 years, with unanchored price expectations and trying to anticipate the point of Fed’s first rate hike.
This is the context in which Mexico’s central bank will make its first monetary decision, according to analysts from BNP Paribás, Bank of America Securities and the Pantheon Macroeconomics consultancy.
The evident transfer of prices that has occurred in Mexico, from the increase in energy prices such as Gas and Gasoline, which will slow down the downward trajectory of inflation, will motivate Banco de México to change its monetary policy to become more hawk, explained the economist for Mexico of BNP Paribás, Pamela Díaz Loubet.
Hawk, in monetary language, indicates a position that is more likely to raise rates to make policy more restrictive and is therefore less tolerant to inflation.
According to the strategist, regardless of the divergences that the members of the Government Board On the origin of inflation or its persistence, the deputy governor who has remained dissident to the decision to raise the rate, Gerardo Esquivel, has explained in each announcement that the increase had to be saved to react when the Fed will begin normalization. So the time has come, he recorded.
The most lax position of monetary policy with respect to inflationary pressure is identified in monetary language as dovish, a position with which Esquivel is identified.
The chief economist for Mexico and Canada of BofA Securities, Carlos Capistrán clarified that it will be until February 24, when the minutes of the first meeting of the Governing Board are known, when the market will have more elements to outline the monetary position of the Governor.
No curriculum in the Governing Board
Despite the fact that 20 days of his mandate have passed, the Bank of Mexico He has not posted his curriculum vitae on the official website, where instead there is direct access to the resumes of the four deputy governors.
From London, the senior economist for Latin America at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Andrés Abadía, the new member of the Governing Board, Victoria Rodriguez Ceja, “will have to quickly demonstrate that it has the necessary capacity to understand these challenges and solve them while the capital flight continues.”
“Mrs. Rodríguez Ceja will have to learn to implement monetary policy in a political environment that is quite negative for investment at the domestic level and demonstrate the independence of the governing council,” he observed.
After the official’s appearance before senators, to defend her professional accreditation to take office, strategists from Franklin Templeton and Credit Suisse stressed that she gave a speech to reassure the market: Maintain the autonomy of Banco de México, maintain the administration of reserves as a sole power of the central bank and defend the sole objective of preserving the purchasing power of the currency.
Although, Raymundo Tenorio, a former Bank of Mexico official and author of treatises on Macroeconomics, stressed that the official “did not show a correct reading of monetary policy.”
And it is that, as evidenced by her experience in the last positions that preceded her entry into Banxico, the official has shown macroeconomic knowledge and intense participation in the field of public finances.
Fifth in autonomous life
Victoria Rodriguez Ceja She has become the fifth governor of the autonomous life of the Bank of Mexico.
Its arrival at number 2 of 5 de Mayo Street, in the historic center of the City, will allow Mexico to enter the limited group of eleven central banks led by women in the world.
According to information collected by The Economist, the professionals at the forefront of the world’s monetary policy, whether as governors, presidents or directors, are now 11 and are located on four continents.
In Europe there are four: In the European Central Bank (ECB), which is chaired by Christine Lagarde; the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia is Anita Angelovska Bezhoska as Governor; the Central Bank of Russia, with Governor Elvira Niabiullina; and at the National Bank of Serbia, where Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic works.
On the Asian continent, there is only one woman leading monetary policy in the Central Bank of Malaysia, whose president is Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus.
In Africa, there are only two monetary authorities led by women: the Central Bank of Lesotho with Governor Adelaide Retselistsoe Matlanyan and the Central Bank of Seychelles with Governor Caroline Abel.
In America there are three and from next year they will rise to four: in the Central Bank of Ecuador, with Verónica Artola Jarrín, as General Manager; the Central Bank of Cuba with Marta Sabina Wilson González, as Minister President; in Panama, Lizbeth Ann Henríquez, president of the Board of Directors and in Banco de México, with Governor Rodríguez Ceja.