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The prolonged lack of moisture suffered by Argentine crops today led the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange (BCBA) to reduce its projection on the volume of the 2021/2022 Argentine soybean harvest from 44 to 42 million tons., which would thus be less than the 43.10 million obtained in the previous campaign, according to the data handled by the entity.

“The lack of surface moisture on both ends of the Argentine agricultural area prevented the initial planting plans from being carried out, with an area that was adjusted from 16.5 to 16.3 million hectares. Further, as a consequence of the high temperatures and the tight water reserves on the nuclei during the critical period of the crop, the potential yield could register losses of up to 30 percent”, the Stock Exchange said in its weekly agricultural panorama, where it considered the sowing work finished.

The new crop estimate of the Exchange was above the 40 million tons projected on January 12 by the Rosario Stock Exchange, while it was much lower than the 46.50 million tons projected by the Department of Agriculture of the United States (USDA) in its January report. This body will publish its new monthly report on the 9th of the current one.

In the weekly weighting of the condition of the crops, the BCBA reduced the proportion of soybeans in excellent/good condition from 38 to 37%, which is still above 17% at the same time in 2021. And regarding the water condition of the soils covered with the oilseed, it rose from 63 to 64% the portion in optimal/adequate condition, compared to 87% at the same time the previous year.

The Stock Exchange reported a slight deterioration in the state of the plants
The Stock Exchange reported a slight deterioration in the state of the plants

In the zonal detail, the entity indicated that in the NOA the most advanced plots begin to go through the first reproductive stages, with 41.8% of the implanted lots starting flowering under regular water conditions. “The NOA and NEA report losses in the plant stand and even some reseeding, heterogeneity and studded lots as a result of lack of moisture,” he explained.

About the center of the agricultural area, the BCBA reported an improvement in the water condition after the rains recorded during the last ten days. “But nevertheless, On the northern nucleus, a regular water condition is still reported on 40% of the planted area, as a consequence of the scarce and variable accumulated records. The area relies on new storm fronts to prevent further decline. On the north of La Pampa-west of Buenos Aires and in the center of Buenos Aires, losses of area are revealed as a result of flooding in low-lying sectors, which could impact on the production potential”, it was pointed out in the weekly report.

The reduction in the Argentine harvest expectation is part of the regional context of lower harvests as a result of dry weather. The greatest reference in this situation, due to its specific weight as the world’s leading producer and exporter of soybeans, is Brazil. Over the course of the week, several private projections were released that marked the losses due to the poor condition of the plants in Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná.

Indeed, AgRural reduced its forecast for the soybean harvest in Brazil from 133.40 to 128.50 million tons; AgResource, from 131 to 125 million; StoneX, from 134 to 126.5 million, and Datagro, from 142.10 to 130 million tons. All these new figures were much lower than the 140.50 million tons projected in January by the National Supply Company, dependent on the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, and the 139 million calculated – also last month – by the USDA.

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